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Robust risk quantification via shock propagation in financial networks

OPERATIONS RESEARCHforthcoming

Ahn, Dohyun | Chen, Nan | Kim, Kyoung-Kuk

Given limited network information, we consider robust risk quantification under the Eisenberg-Noe model for financial networks. To be more specific, motivated by the fact that the structure of the interbank network is not completely known in practice, we propose a robust optimization approach to obtain worst-case default probabilities and associated capital requirements for a specific group of banks (e.g., systemically important financial institutions) under network information uncertainty. Using this tool, we analyze the effects of various incomplete network information structures on these worst-case quantities and provide regulatory insights into the collection of actionable network information. All claims are numerically illustrated using data from the European banking system.

Publisher
INFORMS
Issue Date
forthcoming
Citation
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN
0030-364X
DOI
10.1287/opre.2020.0722
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