KAIST 경영대학 경영공학부 교수 > 교수 & 연구 >KAIST COLLEGE OF BUSINESS
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전덕빈 교수 사진
전덕빈 교수
Contact Information
  • Office.S286
  • Tel.02-958-3634
  • E-mail.dbjun@kaist.ac.kr
Research Areas 경영 및 경제예측 (Business & Economic Forecasts and Strategies)
Biography

학력

    - University of California, Berkeley, Ph. D., 1985
    - SNU(Seoul National University) Department of Industrial Engineering, Bachelor 1981

주요경력

    - KAIST 경영대학 교수, 1989-현재
    - Journal of Forecasting, Associate Editor, 2008-현재
    - The 33rd International Symposium on Forecasting held in Korea, 조직위원장, 2013
    - 한국경영과학회 회장 (제 25대, 2016)
    - KAIST 테크노경영대학원장, 테크노MBA 책임교수
    - KAIST 경영공학 경영통계 및 예측분야 책임교수, 2009-2012
    - 한국경영과학회지 편집위원장, 2006-2008
    - KAIST 테크노경영대학원 학과장, 2004-2005
    - KAIST 테크노경영대학원 통신경영/정책 연구센터장, 2002-2006
    - Forbizone Inc. 대표이사, 2002-2003
    - IBC가 선정한 세계의 위대한 1000명의 과학자, 2002
    - 현대자동차-KAIST 글로벌 전문가 과정 총괄 책임 교수, 2002
    - Marquis Who's Who in the World(in Science and Engineering) selected in the 18th Edition, 2001
    - KAIST 테크노경영대학원 통신경영/정책 MBA 책임교수, 1999-2002
    - KAIST 테크노경영대학원 한국통신 테크노경영 단기과정 책임교수, 1999-2001
    - ANBAR가 선정한 경영분야 최고 인용 논문상(Citation of Highest Quality Rating) 수상, 1998
    - KAIST 테크노경영대학원 SK텔레콤 통신학문복합과정 책임교수, 1997-1999
    - Ins. of Transportation Studies, Univ. of California, 객원연구원, 1991-1992
    - 경희대학교 산업공학과 교수, 1985-1989
    - Lawrence Berkeley Lab, U. C. Berkeley, 연구원, 1983-1985

산업체자문활동

    - 현대자동차, LG, 삼성, 포항제철, CJ CGV, SK Telecom, 한국통신, 한국전자통신연구소, 재정경제연구원, 통신정책개발연구원, 한국은행, 조흥은행, 등 예측관련 자문 및 시스템 개발
Publications & Research

주요논문 (특허등)

    - "Capturing Essential Correlations in Choice Outcomes using Copulas" with C. Kim and S. H. Park, International Journal of Research in Marketing, Under revision, 2016.
    - " A Bayesian Sequential Method for Identifying Structural Shocks and Adaptive Forecasting in Linear State Space Model" with S. H. Kim and D. K. Park, Journal of Forecasting, Submitted, 2016.
    - "The Impact of Non-financial Incentives on Judgmental Forecasting Performance" with H. Y. Kim and Y. S. Lee, International Journal of Forecasting, submitted 2015.
    - "A Copula-based Direct Utility Approach for Correlated Choice Alternatives" with C. Kim and S. H. Park, Marketing Science, Submitted, 2015.
    - "Forecasting Annual Lung and Bronchus Cancer Deaths by Using Individual Survival Times" with K. Kim and M. H. Park, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 32, Issue 1, January-March 2016, Pages 168-179.
    - "Temporal Disaggregation: Methods, Information Loss, and Diagnostics" with J. H. Moon and S. Park, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Volume 34, Issue 1, 2016.
    - "Modeling Patronage Shift to a New Entrant for Predicting Disproportionate Losses for Incumbent Outlets" with J. Kim, M. H. Park, and K. C. Cha, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 28, pp. 660-674, 2012.
    - "Parameter Space Restrictions in State-Space Models" with D. S. Kim, S. Park, and M. H. Park, Journal of Forecasting, vol. 31, pp. 109-123, 2012.
    - "A Choice-Based Multi-Product Diffusion Model Incorporating Replacement Demand" with J. I. Kim, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 78, pp. 674-689, 2011.
    - "A Simultaneous Test of Unit Root and Level Change" with D. K. Park, Journal of Forecasting, vol. 29, pp. 301-312, 2010.
    - "Managing and Modeling the Price Reduction Effect in Mobile Telecommunications Traffic" with K. C. Cha, A.R. Wilson, and Y. S. Park, Telecommunications Policy, vol. 32, pp. 468-479, 2008.
    - "Bridging Telecommunications Service: Its Concept and Related Management Strategy" with J. H. Ahn, K. C. Cha, and M. H. Park, Telecommunications Policy, vol. 28, pp. 733-750, 2004.
    - "Forecasting Telecommunication Service Subscribers in Substitutive and Competitive Environments" with S. K. Kim, Y. S. Park, M. H. Park, and A. R. Wilson, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 18, pp. 561-581, 2002.
    - "Forecasting Demand for Low Earth Orbit Mobile Satellite Service in Korea" with S. K. Kim, M. H. Park, M. S. Bae, Y. S. Park, and Y. J. Joo, Telecommunication Systems, vol.14, pp. 311-319, 2000.
    - "A Choice-Based Diffusion Model for Multiple Generations of Products" with Y. S. Park, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 61, pp. 45-58, 1999.
    - "State Space Model Trend-Cycle Decomposition of the ARIMA(1,1,1) Process" with Y. J. Joo, Journal of Forecasting, vol. 16, pp. 411-424, 1997.
    - "Growth Cycle Decomposition Diffusion Model" with Y. J. Joo, Marketing Letters, vol. 7, pp. 207-214, 1996.
    - "Predicting Turning Points in Business Cycles by Detection of Slope Changes in the Leading Composite Index" with Y. J. Joo, Journal of Forecasting, vol. 12, pp. 197-213, 1993.
    - "Comment on Variance Intervention", Journal of Forecasting, vol. 8, pp. 417-418, 1989.
    - "On Detecting and Estimating a Major Level or Slope Change in General Exponential Smoothing", Journal of Forecasting, vol. 8, pp. 55-64, 1989.
    - "Bayesian Forecasts Following a Major Level Change in Exponential Smoothing" with R. M. Oliver, Journal of Forecasting, vol. 4, pp. 293-302, 1985.

연구분야

    - 경영 및 경제예측 (Business & Economic Forecasting)
Press

언론기고 및 출연활동

    - '시론: 산학협동', 주간매경 1994. 6. 29
    - '시론: 수요예측', 마케팅 연구 1995
    - '담뱃값 인상과 소비량 예측', 동아일보, 2004.1.02
    - KBS1 TV, 과학의 향기 '예측과학의 시대-과학으로 미래를 내다본다', 2006. 4. 13
    - 과학동아, '과학은 쪽집게', 2006년3월-2007년
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